Which Butterfly Caused the Tornado?

The public expects science to deliver discoveries that provide increasingly precise answers about our world. Yet some scientific discoveries suggest inherent limits to scientific knowledge. One example is chaos theory, popularized as the “butterfly effect.”

The butterfly effect is a simple insight first extracted from the complex science of meteorology by Edward Lorentz in 1961 at MIT. He found that small changes in initial conditions, such as rounding a number used to represent an atmospheric condition from .506127 to .506, could completely transform a long-term weather forecast. He explained this insight in his 1972 paper, “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”

 His paper described both a practical limit for weather predictions and a philosophical limit for the explanatory powers of science. In complex, nonlinear systems, a small change in input can produce a large change in output. Thus, weather predictions more than a week in advance always will be fairly inaccurate. The philosophical limit is that the effects of chaos prevent us from knowing which butterfly caused the tornado.

So the lesson of the butterfly effect is that our world will remain fundamentally unpredictable because tiny differences in our scientific measurements make too big a difference in the final answer. Everything happens for a reason, but science may be unable to give us an exact cause for an event. Accepting limitations to the explanatory power of science does not diminish the importance of science. After all, the discovery of our human limitations in fully comprehending our world is a finding with profound significance.

Questions to ponder: What does the inherent limitations of science say about the limits of human understanding? Does science preclude spirituality?

Key Concepts to Tweet

  • Everything happens for a reason, but science may be unable to give us an exact cause for an event.  Buffer
  • Accepting limitations to the explanatory power of science does not diminish the importance of...  Buffer

2 thoughts on “Which Butterfly Caused the Tornado?”

  1. I am extremely inspired with your writing abilities as well as with the structure to your weblog. Is that this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Either way keep up the nice high quality writing, it’s uncommon to see a nice blog like this one nowadays.

  2. I think Which Butterfly Caused the Tornado? | Question Your Doubts is a nice article and you do a good job of posting very detailed. Thom

Leave a Reply